Target-Date Funds Concentrate in the 2030 to 2040 Cohorts
https://staging.axiomaticdata.com/blogPosts/target-date-funds-concentrate-in-2040-retirement-cohort
Target-date assets are not spread evenly across vintages. They pile up in a narrow band: the 2030, 2035 and 2040 funds hold $1.04 trillion, 44% of the $2.36 trillion in target-date funds inside large 401(k) plans.
| Target year | Target-date dollars | Share |
|---|---|---|
| 2010 to 2020 | $100B | 4% |
| 2025 | $192B | 8% |
| 2030 | $347B | 15% |
| 2035 | $348B | 15% |
| 2040 | $347B | 15% |
| 2045 | $314B | 13% |
| 2050 | $297B | 13% |
| 2055 to 2065 | $373B | 16% |
| Retirement income or unspecified | $38B | 2% |
Why the money sits there
Balances build with age. Savers in the 2030 to 2040 cohorts are roughly 45 to 60 years old: they have had decades of contributions and market growth, and are in their highest-earning years. Younger cohorts hold more accounts but smaller balances. Older cohorts are shrinking as people retire and roll money out of their plans.
Why it matters
That concentration locates the cohort whose glide path decisions are about to become real: people retiring in the next 5 to 15 years. These are the vintages where managers are shifting from growth to income, and where questions about retirement income products and private-market sleeves apply first. Any change in how the 2030 to 2040 funds are managed moves nearly three times more money than every vintage after 2050 combined ($373 billion).
About the data
Figures cover 401(k) plans with more than 100 participants that list their holdings on Schedule H of Form 5500, for plan year 2024 (52,763 plans). Dollars are the plans' holdings in mutual funds, collective investment trusts (CITs) and pooled separate accounts on the Schedule of Assets Held.
Every plan, fund and manager behind these numbers is in Axiomatic Plan Intelligence. For more information, email us at info@axiomaticdata.com.
Updated November 2026 with figures from the latest complete plan year (2024). The original LinkedIn post used an earlier version of our data, so some numbers differ.
Originally posted on LinkedIn.